Economic instability has been rippling through globe since the U.S. housing market crash of 2007-2008. With the prospect of economic volatility reaching developing countries, evaluating risk is key when determining investment and trade opportunities.
The Country Risk Barometer: Key Challenges for 2016 produced by trade credit insurer Coface, highlights those countries that have persevered through this economic contraction as well as those that have recently underperformed.
Bright spots from the report have been seen in Europe as a whole, with Central Europe being the highlight. Benefiting from cheap oil, the weak euro, and the slow decline in unemployment, the outlook looks positive overall.
That is not to say that risk from a possible Brexit, the ongoing Refugee Crisis and financial instability in countries like Greece, Spain and Portugal should be ignored.
Further, the Coface report notes that “in addition to sluggish GDP growth negatively affecting their profitability, businesses in emerging countries are currently facing a second problem: their growing debt. It multiplied by a factor of 4.5 between 2004 and 2014 in absolute value.”